Historical Noodling: What if Truman hadn’t sacked MacArthur?
How do you think things would be different today?
Something I was thinking about the other day: What if President Harry S. Truman had decided either just to trust General Douglas MacArthur’s military (and other) judgment and leave him in charge during the Korean War or that the politics were such that relieving him of command wouldn’t be better than leaving things as they were?
MacArthur was pushing for a much more thorough prosecution of the war: since troops from the People’s Republic of China had begun supplying and fighting alongside the North Korean communist forces, the Americans and their allies should take the fight across the 38th parallel, engaging the enemy wherever it was found — which included bombing on the Chinese side of the border, to sever those supply lines. MacArthur considered it his mission to free the entire Korean peninsula from communist control, not just return to the state of “peace” between North and South that had been imposed at the end of World War II. Truman disagreed, and with his top general making their difference of opinion on how the war should be fought public, reluctantly relieved him of command.
But what if that hadn’t happened? What would that mean for Korea today? What would it mean for China and its place in the world today? (And, for that matter, Taiwan?) What about the Cold War, the fate of the Soviet Union, and present-day Russia?
If we assume that an unleashed MacArthur would have achieved his aims (I think he would have), would a unified Korea have had less of an existential drive toward economic strength and independence — or would it instead be an even bigger commercial and industrial force than it is today? Would the Chinese Communist regime been chastened by a defeat, weakened both militarily and economically (with possible follow-on repercussions for its control of the nation), or instead become just that much more motivated to assert itself as an armed and aggressive nation, in Asia and beyond?
I think it’s an interesting question because a total victory in Korea — and with it a defeat of the PRC — would have had deep and lasting repercussions. The significance of the Korean War is often overlooked, especially since it resulted in what was basically a stalemate. But if it had turned out differently we would probably be looking at a much different world today.
What do you think would be different if MacArthur had been kept in command and given free rein in Korea? Why?